A recently discovered asteroid that has captured the attention of the astronomy community now has a slightly increased risk of affecting Earth.

Named 2024 YR4, the asteroid has a 2.2% chance of hitting our planet on December 22, 2032, according to the European Space Agency. The risk assessment has increased from a chance of 1.2% over the last week due to new observations.

Astronomers expect the percentage to evolve as more observations are shared. If this asteroid follows the pattern of other near-Earth asteroids after their discovery, the chances of impact will rise and then fall, according to the agency. For example, the asteroid Apophis was once considered one of the most hazardous asteroids, with the potential to strike Earth after its discovery in 2004. In 2021, scientists revised that opinion after a precise analysis of the asteroid’s orbit.

The more astronomers can observe asteroid 2024 YR4, the more they can refine their understanding of its size and trajectory, which will determine the likelihood of an impact.

“Basically, the more observations we get, the more we can localise and confirm the asteroid’s trajectory, which is most likely to turn out to be a flyby, and not an impact,” according to a blog post the agency shared. “Hence, we expect the risk forecast can be steadily/stepwise reduced to zero.”

The asteroid is estimated to be 131 to 295 feet (40 and 90 meters) wide.

The space rock has a “size range comparable to that of a large building,” said Dr. Paul Chodas, manager for the Center for Near Earth Object Studies, or CNEOS, at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California. Chodas added that the size of the asteroid, which astronomers are trying to determine with follow-up observations using multiple telescopes, is currently highly uncertain.

Source - https://edition.cnn.com/2025/02/07/science/asteroid-2024-yr4-earth-risk/index.html